An analysis of weight of children trends from 1971 to 2008 suggests
that the average weight of children is likely to increase by nearly 4.4
lbs by 2020 if nothing changes, according to Claire Wang, MD, ScD, of
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health in New York City,
and colleagues.
That would mean about 21% of children ages 2 to 19 would be obese. This would be an increase of 4.1% from 2008 levels.
The researchers used data from successive waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, starting in 1971 and ending in 2008, to establish linear trends.
That analysis showed that the average body mass index among children 2 to 19 has risen by 0.55 kg/m2 every decade, while average body weight rose by 1.54 kg every 10 years, Wang and colleagues reported.
Extrapolating from these trends to 2020, the average weight among youth in 2020 would increase by about 1.8 kg (4 lbs) from 2007 to 2008 levels.
After controlling for sex, age, and race/ethnicity, the researchers found that childhood obesity rates rose 3.6% every decade.
A separate analysis of the most recent period, from 1999 through 2008, found that the rising obesity rate trend line has not flattened out, suggesting it makes sense to extrapolate the obesity trends to 2020.
Using that data, the researchers calculated what changes would be needed to hold obesity levels at the 2008 obesity rates, or to reach the overall Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 goals of 5% or 14.6% obesity prevalence, respectively.
The Healthy People 2020 goals also included age-specifıc prevalence targets targets 16.1% among adolescents 12 to 19, 15.7% among children 6 through 11 and 9.6% among those 2 through 5.
The researchers calculated the "energy gap", the reductions in kcal/person/day, that would be needed to reach the various targets.
The researchers found:
The 64-kcal cut needed to prevent a single child from becoming obese to reach the 2020 goals -- combining the 41 kcal required to stay at 2008 levels with the additional 23 kcal cut needed -- "may not sound like much individually, but it's quite a consequential number at the population level," said Wang.
"Children at greatest risk for obesity face an even larger barrier," Wang said, adding "closing this gap between how many calories young people are consuming and how many they are expending will take substantial, comprehensive efforts."
Among possible actions, the researchers suggested:
Reference: Wang YC, et al "Reaching the Healthy People goals for reducing childhood obesity: closing the energy gap" Am J Prev Med 2012; DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2012.01.018.
That would mean about 21% of children ages 2 to 19 would be obese. This would be an increase of 4.1% from 2008 levels.
The researchers used data from successive waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, starting in 1971 and ending in 2008, to establish linear trends.
That analysis showed that the average body mass index among children 2 to 19 has risen by 0.55 kg/m2 every decade, while average body weight rose by 1.54 kg every 10 years, Wang and colleagues reported.
Extrapolating from these trends to 2020, the average weight among youth in 2020 would increase by about 1.8 kg (4 lbs) from 2007 to 2008 levels.
After controlling for sex, age, and race/ethnicity, the researchers found that childhood obesity rates rose 3.6% every decade.
A separate analysis of the most recent period, from 1999 through 2008, found that the rising obesity rate trend line has not flattened out, suggesting it makes sense to extrapolate the obesity trends to 2020.
Using that data, the researchers calculated what changes would be needed to hold obesity levels at the 2008 obesity rates, or to reach the overall Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 goals of 5% or 14.6% obesity prevalence, respectively.
The Healthy People 2020 goals also included age-specifıc prevalence targets targets 16.1% among adolescents 12 to 19, 15.7% among children 6 through 11 and 9.6% among those 2 through 5.
The researchers calculated the "energy gap", the reductions in kcal/person/day, that would be needed to reach the various targets.
The researchers found:
- Just to stay at 2008 childhood obesity rates would require an average reduction of 41 kcal/person/day -- 17 for those in the lowest age group, 37 in the middle ages, and 67 for adolescents.
- To reach the Healthy People 2020 goals would require an extra cut of 23 kcal/person/day -- 5, 40, and 31 for kids 2 to five, 6 to 11, and 12 to 19, respectively.
- And to reach the more aggressive Healthy People 2010 goals would take an average reduction of 120 kcal/person/day -- 33, 149, and 177 for children 2 to 5, 6 to 11, and 12 to 19, respectively.
The 64-kcal cut needed to prevent a single child from becoming obese to reach the 2020 goals -- combining the 41 kcal required to stay at 2008 levels with the additional 23 kcal cut needed -- "may not sound like much individually, but it's quite a consequential number at the population level," said Wang.
"Children at greatest risk for obesity face an even larger barrier," Wang said, adding "closing this gap between how many calories young people are consuming and how many they are expending will take substantial, comprehensive efforts."
Among possible actions, the researchers suggested:
- a comprehensive physical education program could cut eliminate 19 kcal/day among children 9 to 11 and after-school activity programs for children in kindergarten through fifth grade could cut an additional 25 kcal/day.
- replacing sugar-sweetened beverages in schools could reduce the energy gap by 12 kcal/day, as long children didn't consume any extra sugary drinks outside school.
Reference: Wang YC, et al "Reaching the Healthy People goals for reducing childhood obesity: closing the energy gap" Am J Prev Med 2012; DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2012.01.018.
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